Is Israel Dangerous?



There is a reluctance to go to Israel these days due to the perceived risk of getting killed by a wayward suicide bomber. Statistics are difficult to come by, I started by looking at the homocide rates. I found a study that gave the rates averaged over the last few decades. (Its a pdf file, table is on the third page). Summarized we have:

• USA: 7.88


• Canada: 1.88


• Bulgaria: 2.73


• Israel: 1.26

Ok, so in a normal year, going off to Israel will probably result in you being less likely to get murdered. Going to states, by the numbers at least, appears to be suicidal. No summer camp in Vermont for my kids!

But, now we have the dangerous Intifada times, so we need to adjust our figures a bit... The first step is to find out how many people have been killed by the suicide bombers. From September 2000 to May 5, 2002 there were 319 civilian deaths. Thats about 213 murders per year.

Now we need to find the Israeli population, which is about 6 million people. So, an extra 213 deaths in a population of 6 million translates into an extra 3.54 murders per year (per hundred thousand). Therefore, the revised list looks like:

• USA: 7.88


• Canada: 1.88


• Bulgaria: 2.73


• Israel: 4.80

Ok, so while it seems that you are more likely to get murdered in Israel than in Canada, its still safer than going to the states. Just for comparison's sake, the average mortality rate in Canada (due to all causes) is around 660 per hundred thousand according to statscan.

Final summary (all stats in number per hundred thousand):

• Murder rate in USA: 7.88


• Murder rate in Israel (including suicide bombings): 4.80


• Death rate in Canada: 660.00